$11K or $9K: Bitcoin’s Expected Bottom Based on Previous Bear Markets

The past year or so has not been kind to the primary cryptocurrency, following many industry and macroeconomic adversities.

Even though the asset has lost roughly 80% of its value since the all-time high last November, some estimations show that it could drop further, perhaps to the four-digit territory.

• It was approximately a year ago when the industry was booming, led by the massive gains charted by the largest cryptocurrency. Perhaps fueled by the futures ETF launched in the US, bitcoin had pumped to $69,000, marking a fresh all-time high.
• However, the tines began to change in the following months. Central banks tuned their monetary policies from printing excessive amounts of their respective currencies to raising interest rates, trying to battle the galloping inflation they created.
• This, along with the war in Ukraine and a few other macroeconomic factors, pushed riskier assets south, and BTC was no exception. But the landscape worsened following several industry-wide collapses, started by Terra’s spectacular fallout.
• What followed was multiple related companies halting withdrawals, seeking emergency funding, or even filing for bankruptcy. One crypto company stood out as the potential savior – FTX. SBF’s brainchild seemed to be everywhere with loans, bids, or direct acquisitions.
• Yet, that didn’t work out all that well, and it turned out that the savior needed saving on its own. Another spectacular collapse followed, which, as one could expect, drove BTC down once again. The worst, so far, came last week, when bitcoin slumped to a two-year low under $16,000.
• That meant a decline of almost 80% since the ATH in November 2021. But the popular crypto analyst DonAlt warned that bitcoin might not be out of the woods yet. By comparing the current bear cycle with the previous two, the strategist said BTC could fall as low as $9,500 if it mimics the 2014-2015 bear market or $11,000 if the events from 2017-2018 transpire again.

Comparing the current $BTC bear market to the previous two.
So far price is down almost 80%

If this bear market goes as bad as 2014-2015 you’d be looking at roughly $9.5k

If it goes like the 2017-2018 bear market it’d be ~$11k. pic.twitter.com/irPVMZdDWb

— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) November 19, 2022