This Technical Indicator Shows a Mid-Cycle Top, is Big Bitcoin Pullback Coming?

Bitcoin markets have remained sideways or slightly down since the beginning of December. Strong resistance at $44,000 has proved difficult to overcome, and a new resistance level at $43,000 has been tested and rejected twice. 

On Dec. 19, market analyst ‘CryptoCon’ said it would be so easy to join the crowd and call for one more Bitcoin push with potential ETFs looming.

However, “long-term data has spoken” and the Puell Multiple has signaled a mid-cycle top, he noted. 

Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Top 

The mid-cycle top is what it says, a high point between two major cycle peaks. It has appeared in all previous Bitcoin cycles and was followed by a significant market correction.

In 2019, the mid-cycle top appeared in June when BTC prices tapped $13,000. However, they retreated to $4,000 in the pandemic-induced black swan event in March the following year before powering on to a new all-time high in late 2021. The pullback was around 70% in the middle of the cycle. 

In 2016, the mid-cycle top was also in June, and a 33% correction followed before markets recovered and entered the bull phase in 2017.

A correction between these two this time around could send Bitcoin prices back to around $24,000 before there is any sign of recovery if history rhymes. 

I have always been one to go against the grain.

It would be so easy to join the crowd and call for one more #Bitcoin push with potential ETFs looming.

But long-term data has spoken!

Here again, we see the Puell Multiple has fired for the mid-top, which it has called without… pic.twitter.com/9ysmS2hpJQ

— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) December 19, 2023

Bitcoin investor “Titan of Crypto” concurred with the correction theory, stating that it was a pre-halving rally.

“Keep in mind corrections are part of all bull markets,” he said before adding that they were just opportunities to dollar cost average for investors.

#Bitcoin Pre Halving Rally 🏁#BTC reached my target zone as expected. ✅

What is this zone ? It’s the reload zone, professionals use it as a an area for shorting or taking profits.

Is a correction probable from here? Yes. Could be an area for a local top? Yes, but nothing… pic.twitter.com/VSx3IRZMhb

— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) December 19, 2023

However, not everyone is as bearish. MN Trading co-founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin did test the lows but didn’t take the liquidity beneath the lows. “Anyway, correction seems over, and pre-ETF we’re likely to test $47-50K,” he added. 

BTC Price Outlook 

Bitcoin was trading slightly down on the day at $42,870 at the time of writing. The asset was recovering from an intraday low of $41,837 but was up 4% over the past seven days. 

The $40,700 area has been solid support over the past week, with resistance at $43,300.