Spot Buying Drives BTC Rally as Market Awaits Fed Rate Cut: Bitfinex

While bitcoin (BTC) faces local resistance levels, the crypto asset is experiencing a rally driven by aggressive spot market activity.

According to a Bitfinex Alpha report, on-chain metrics suggest bitcoin’s momentum is currently bullish. This outlook is also reinforced by rising inflows into the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling growing confidence among retail and institutional investors.

Spot Activity Drives Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is seen in the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data. This metric measures the net volume from spot market orders across exchanges by subtracting the volume of sell orders from buy orders. The asset’s spot CVD has driven its price upward since the plunge below $53,000 in early September.

Analysts said the CVD for stablecoin-margined and coin-margined perpetual markets have also rallied; however, their movements have been minimal, indicating that bitcoin’s ongoing rally has been driven by spot activity rather than by participants in perpetuals or futures markets.

“This kind of buying behavior is typically viewed as a more sustainable foundation for price increases, as it reflects a direct commitment of capital to the asset rather than leverage-based speculative bets,” Bitfinex stated.

BTC at Resistance Level

The price surge has brought BTC to the $60,500-$61,000 resistance level, which analysts say is a cause for concern. This level has played an important role throughout the market’s ranging price movement since early March.

Another cause for concern is how the spot CVD has remained flat while driving bitcoin’s price; Bitfinex said this metric could stall if there is a de-risking event before or after the highly-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week.

Historical data shows that equities and risk assets often see a sell-off on the lower time frames after the Fed announces a rate cut; however, Bitfinex asserted that this pattern is not an infallible predictor of future trends.

The crypto market is currently poised for potential volatility based on investor expectations regarding the upcoming rate cuts. Whether the Fed implements a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut, Bitfinex said market behavior could swing between cautious de-risking and bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, the total Bitcoin Open Interest across all perpetual trading pairs has jumped by roughly 14% since BTC fell below $53,000, and funding rates have moved from extremely negative to neutral.