After 2020, Bitcoin is all set to face the 4th halving, wherein the rewards will be halved from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. While the broader market sentiments are bullish, considering the impact in previous times, they also need to be aware of a notable change in the market dynamics during the current halving. Therefore, it may not be necessary for the BTC price to repeat the previous pattern, as a fresh one may be in the making.
It is quite true that the BTC price has faced a notable pullback just before each halving, which makes traders and analysts confident of the rally that might follow. However, the market dynamics have evolved a little after the previous Bitcoin halving, which suggests, that the BTC price action is preparing for a major price action while the direction remains unclear.
Below are some of the factors which have slightly changed the ‘Halving-perspective’
Bitcoin supply is limited to 21 million, after which the new issuance will be completely stopped. Out of these, 7.8 million BTC have been lost, & 13.3 million BTC have been dormant for over a year. Currently, the new issuance has dropped below 1000 BTC per day and after halving, less than 500 BTC may be entering the markets. Hence, the impact of it may also be halved.
Secondly, the miners’ outflows were recorded within a visible range of 1000 to 3000 BTC until the 2022 bear market kicked in. The constant drop in the BTC price compelled the miners to let out BTC from their reserves, which raised the outflows to over 16,000 BTC in November 2022. Further, 2023 carried mixed sentiments as the outflows dropped close to 1000 BTC but also made new highs above 18,000 BTC. Interestingly, with the bulls gaining back control, miners began to liquidate their reserves. As a result, the outflow has reached highs above 61,000 BTC in 2024.
The main reason to be worried about the upcoming halving is that miners are constantly reducing their reserves. Although they have decreased, it is not enough to stabilise the prices before the halving, which may trigger a healthy upswing soon after the event. A reduction in the rewards may also raise concerns about higher outflows, which may not be in the favour of the markets.
Finally, the overall market conditions have changed to a large extent as the 2021 bull market has attracted a huge chunk of traders, influencers, institutions, and also government institutions. Besides, global factors like tensions between nations, restrictions, etc., and many more may hurt the crypto space. Hence, it is required to be vigilant at the moment and not only consider the previous experiences, expecting a similar outcome.
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