Data from previous crypto market cycles suggests that Bitcoin (BTC)’s dominance over altcoins will likely keep rising over the next several months, according to Glassnode.
In a newly published report, the blockchain and market intelligence outlined how the leading crypto asset’s dominance is shaping up against the second largest crypto, Ethereum (ETH), compared to previous years.
Ethereum Beating Gold, But Losing to BTC
When weighed against gold, Bitcoin has appreciated by 93% this year, with the former’s price per ounce staying relatively contained under $2000. ETH, by contrast, has only appreciated by 39%.
According to Glassnode, while both assets have experienced “similar magnitude downswings” throughout the year, upswing periods have seen more substantial gains for BTC. Glassnode writes:
“Prior cycles have seen ETH drawdown to depths of over -50% on a relative basis during the bear market recovery phase, with the current drawdown reaching -38%.”
Glassnode said that ETH’s drawdown phase versus BTC since the former’s “cycle low” in June 2022 has already continued for 470 days so far, compared to periods of less than 400 days in prior cycles.
As of November, Bitcoin dominance has risen from 38% in late 2022 to 53%, while Ethereum dominance stands at merely 17%. Market dominance refers to how much of the total crypto market cap Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively comprise.
In recent weeks, the ETH/BTC price ratio has fallen to a roughly 15-month low of 0.052. The excitement around a potential Bitcoin ETF, alongside a “flight to quality” away from bonds into other assets, has helped push BTC away from its other crypto competitors.
As a group, altcoins excluding stablecoins have grown 37% this year, meaningfully trailing BTC. Stablecoins, which are typically backed by non-crypto assets like fiat currencies, comprise over 9% of crypto’s total market cap.
When Does Bitcoin Season End?
According to Glassnode’s lead analyst James Check, the market is still “well and truly in a period of Bitcoin dominance expansion.”
“It took up until March 2020 when this started to reverse,” said Check regarding the previous cycle in a recent video analysis.
In March 2020, Bitcoin collapsed from $9000 to under $4000 on “Black Thursday,” before later recovering and rallying to over $64,000 over the next 12 months. This rally period, however, was accompanied by even greater gains for ETH and other altcoins, such as Dogecoin (DOGE).
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