The previous two cycles may provide an indication of where BTC prices might head after the previous all-time high was broken.
In the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin prices peaked at around $1,130, but they did not break this level again until March 2017. However, in the three months that followed, BTC prices doubled.
When the 2017 all-time high of $20,000 was breached in December 2020, BTC prices doubled within a month.
Bitcoin’s 2021 all-time high of $69,000 was topped in March, so prices could potentially double to around $140,000 within the next few months if cycle history rhymes.
Big Gains Ahead?
A similar analysis was provided by “Alpha Analysis” on May 23 in a post on X. They added that in 2014 and 2017, there were multi-week corrections after the brand-new price peak and before the following parabola.
In 2017 the price of Bitcoin doubled in just 4 weeks after it established brand new all time highs.
In 2021 the price of Bitcoin doubled in just 4 weeks after it established brand new all time highs.
In 2024 the same action would imply a $138,000 price by the end of June.🚀🌛 pic.twitter.com/4kOBPa6y11
— alphanalysis.io (@Sawcruhteez) May 22, 2024
Bitcoin markets appear to be mirroring this action as the asset had corrected 23% by May 2 but recovered to remain largely range-bound since it broke the 2021 all-time high on March 12.
Fellow analyst Will Woo came to a similar conclusion on May 22, posting on X that “While everyone was freaking out that Bitcoin price was not rising the last 2 months, available BTC was quietly being scooped up,” before adding:
“Last time I’ll say it… It’s only a matter of time before BTC squeezes past all-time highs.”
Glassnode analyst James Check said markets are still quite far from the true euphoria phase of this bull cycle, adding that “we’re on the boundary between enthusiasm and excitement, but not yet euphoric.”
#Bitcoin is Still Quiet, and Still Trending.
In my view, we’re quite far from the true Euphoria phase of this bull market.
You could argue we’re on the boundary between Enthusiasm and Excitement, but not yet Euphoric.https://t.co/ZvplEcKcKk pic.twitter.com/h1SC3lDjPC
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) May 22, 2024
Crypto Market Outlook
Bitcoin prices are currently trading very close to their November 2021 all-time high, which is building a base of support. The asset dipped 0.5% on the day and was changing hands for $69,500 during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.
A fall from here could see it fall back to support at $67,000, but a move higher would reach resistance at $71,000.
Ethereum has held on to recent gains as the crypto community collectively holds its breath for the US Securities and Exchange Commission to decide whether to approve or deny the country’s first spot ETH ETF later today. The asset was trading for $3,776 at the time of writing.
Altcoins were either flat or declining marginally and haven’t really maintained pace with BTC or ETH during the recent rally.
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