The following trade appears to be extremely bearish for the Bitcoin(BTC) price, as the trade setup and on-chain fractals point to a massive drop for the token that is rapidly approaching. The bottom is formed 300 to 400 days after the cycle’s highs, according to the pattern followed by the asset since its inception. In addition, given the halving, bottoms form 500-550 days before the next halving event.
Meanwhile, the next halving is in April 2024, so both data point to a BTC bottom between $10,000 and $13,000 by December 2022. Additionally, the on-chain metrics display that short-term retail holders have been constantly depleting who are responsible to maintain the volatility of the asset.
As per the data from into the block, the retail traders holding the tokens for less than a month have plunged by nearly 50% since the beginning of 2022. The number of addresses that were around 4.65 million in January has dropped hard to 2.38 million at the moment. Furthermore, investors and whales have gained more market share, but this has no effect on the asset’s volatility.
The holders holding 1000 to 10,000 BTC seem to have let off their holding as they have dropped from 28.07% to 25.61% at the moment. Conversely, the holders with more than 10K BTC have been accumulating BTC ever since the prices collapsed by 50% in May 2022. Additionally, the supply on the exchanges has also dropped heavily which indicates the liquidity on the platforms has dried up heavily.
Meanwhile, the volatility of Bitcoin has slashed hard from 0.65 to as low as 0.36 since the beginning of October 2022. Also, the new issuance rate slashed immediately after the market collapsed in May and continues to remain within the same regions. Hence, indicating a drop in mining activity.
Hence, with all the metrics above, it may be fair enough to determine the upcoming trend of the star crypto. As long as there is no influx of liquidity, the Bitcoin(BTC) price could continue trading within the narrow regions. Furthermore, if the markets fall prey to any FUD, then the prices may break down from the range to mark new lows between $10,000 to $13,000 as suggested above.
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