Bitcoin has seen a considerable surge as of today and is up 2% in the last 24 hours. Based on buyers, the price could hit $11,000 $11,100 or crash down to $10,700. The sellers could drive it as low as $10,300 too.
Today’s short-term price analysis takes a look at bitcoin on an hourly time frame and possible scenarios where could end in the next couple of hours.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
Source: BTCUSD, TradingView
The chart shows bitcoin in an ascending parallel channel, which is bearish. So the likely direction price will head is down. However, at press time, the price seems to be pushing higher.
Often, bullish patterns breakout in the opposite directions forming a – fakeout, which hurts the performance of the pattern. This surge could very well be a fake-out to shake out the short-sellers and lure buyers.
If true, then the price could head as high as $10,962 and reverse. However, if this isn’t a fake then we can expect the price to head even higher – $11,101.
These two targets are for bullish outcomes. While the former target is likely, the latter target seems unlikely. The reason is the RSI indicator, which is near the overbought zone. This indicates the buyers have already used their steam to push the price to the top of the channel. Hence, further uptrend, at least up to $11,101 seems unlikely.
The bearish scenario seems achievable due to the pattern and the indicators. The pattern is inherently bearish and the indicators seem toppy, same as the price. For bearish outcomes, the actual target is the bottom of the channel at $10,700, a strong wave of sellers could push the price as low as $10,540 and $10,380.
Either way, a short position seems likely with a stop loss at $10,950 should yield a profit of 3R to 9R, with 9R having a take-profit at $10,379.
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