Bullish or Bearish? A Closer Look at Bitcoin’s Historical Performance in March

Following an ultimately flat February, eager investors are curious: what’s in store for Bitcoin’s price this March?

Here’s a look at how Bitcoin has performed each March over the last 12 years. On average, the asset’s price has risen by 10% each time. 

Bitcoin, March, and the Halving

In its earliest days, March wasn’t a particularly bullish month for BTC. The cryptocurrency fell by 8.2% to just $0.79 in 2011, and went on to move 0% in March of the following year. 

Things changed in 2013, however, when Bitcoin closed the month at $92.19 – a whopping 176.2% rise from the start of the month. This came five months after Bitcoin’s very first halving in November 2012.

“The halving,” refers to when Bitcoin’s supply issuance per block is cut in half every 210,000 blocks, roughly once every 4 years. This creates a supply crunch that’s historically triggered major bullish price momentum for Bitcoin each time it occurs. 

The next five years marked a return to bearishness. From 2014 through to 2018, Bitcoin fell by 16.9%, 4%, 4.8%, 9.2%, and 32.8% in each consecutive year – the latter being Bitcoin’s worst March on record. Like in 2013, Bitcoin’s decline in March 2018 was in line with the halving cycle, just one year after Bitcoin’s timely bull market in 2017. 

While Bitcoin saw some reprieve with a 7.4% boost in March 2019, March 2020 defied the halving schedule. Bitcoin plunged 24.8% – largely a response to “Black Thursday” when stocks and crypto plummeted from growing panic around the fast-spreading coronavirus. Bitcoin had fallen by over 50% on March 12, from over $8000 to under $4000. 

Bitcoin’s third halving occurred two months later, helping spur March rallies in the following two years, including 30.2% and 5.4% boosts in 2021 and 2022 respectively. 

What’s Next?

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin may be due for some selling pressure in the short term, stemming from a combination of whales and miners.

Specifically, the amount of Bitcoin both groups have been sending to exchanges is on the rise this week – a well-recognized sign that investors intend to liquidate their coins.

“The BTC Whale Rato metric is high for the next day in SPOT exchanges and this rise is often due to large inflows,” explained the CryptoQuant analyst abramchart. “This behavior can lead to selling pressure.”