Crypto Market Cycle Indicator Shows Bear Signs But Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Worry

In a post on X on Aug. 6, CryptoQuant head of research, Julio Moreno, reported that the on-chain analytics firm’s ‘Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator’ has flagged a bear phase for the first time since January 2023.

The move follows a massive market rout that resulted in around $500 billion being wiped out in less than a week.

However, there is no reason to panic just yet as this indicator has flashed bear warnings during previous bull market cycles that have continued on to all-time highs.

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has flagged BEAR phase (high blue area) for the first time since January 2023.

Other periods when it has flagged BEAR phases for a limited period have been the COVID sell-off (March 2020) and the Chinese mining ban (May 2021). It then… pic.twitter.com/hwJRFjJuFg

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) August 6, 2024

Bull or Bear Market

Other periods when the indicator flagged bear phases for a limited period were the Covid-19 black swan event and sell-off in March 2020 and the Chinese crypto mining ban in May 2021. However, it correctly anticipated the start of the bear market at the cycle peak in November 2021, he added.

While it is true that most altcoins are still in a bear market, Bitcoin currently remains just 22.5% away from its all-time high, which doesn’t sound bearish at all. Analysts appear to be on the fence with regard to bull/bear market conditions.

Earlier this week, crypto trader ‘Philakone’ told his 148,000 X followers that there was a “25% part of me” that believed BTC did reach the top for this cycle and that a major correction is beginning, which no one has accepted yet.

“This would mean a major bear market has begun and $25K to $30K is the next target which will end up destroying the market.”

However, technical analyst ‘Titan of Crypto’ claimed that the bull market was still on in a post on X on Aug. 6. The trader referenced the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, stating, “As long as the price closes above it, the bull market is still on.”

#Bitcoin Bull Market is Still ON. 📈

The only metric you need to monitor to know if #BTC is still in a bull market is:

👉 The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

As long as the price closes above it, the bull market is still on. pic.twitter.com/VZln3iTF45

— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) August 6, 2024

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets have recovered marginally from their massive rout earlier this week, with total capitalization reclaiming $2.1 trillion.

Bitcoin prices tapped $57,000 on Aug. 6, a 14% gain from their dump below $50,000 the previous day. The asset currently trades up 2.6% on the day at a touch below $57,000.

Ethereum has been slower to react. It reclaimed the $2,500 price level but did not advance much further from there despite another solid day of positive ETF inflows in the United States.