Is The US SEC Stuck Against Ripple (XRP)? US Lawyer Chips In

TL;DR

• Jeremy Hogan estimates a 40% chance of a trial in 2024, a 32% chance of a settlement, and a 19% chance of an agreement by end of 2023.
• Some believe the SEC might extend the legal process to maintain uncertainty in the crypto sector.
• Yassin Mobarak suggests the SEC might drop charges against Ripple to avoid negative publicity.

What are the SEC’s Possible Moves?

Jeremy Hogan – a top US attorney and partner at Hogan & Hogan – believes the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces a dead end in its lawsuit against Ripple. In a recent X (Twitter) post, he laid out the potential steps the regulator could take to make the most of the case.

Hogan thinks there is approximately 40% probability that the SEC would move forward with a trial in April 2024 against the individual defendants. 

“The Judge has left only the hardest part of the case for trial. The SEC could easily take an “L” at trial and have some of its dirty laundry aired at the same time,” he argued.

This option seems likely as it will allow the regulator to appeal the decision by 2025 and possibly wait for the court’s ruling in 2026. Some individuals have previously suggested that the SEC will not wave the white flag (despite Ripple’s upper hand in the battle) but prolong the process as long as possible. 

Hogan’s second assumption includes a settlement between the watchdog and the individual defendants. He believes this is the SEC’s “best option,” as the chances for this to happen are around 32%. 

He also thinks there is a 19% probability that the Commission and Ripple shake hands on a mutual agreement by the end of December 2023.

Last but not least, he left an 8.6% chance for some unforeseen scenarios, stating, “Who knows.”

Is Dropping Charges on the Cards?

Another move that the SEC could make in its lawsuit against Ripple is to drop all accusations against the blockchain enterprise and its CEO – Brad Garlinghouse. At least that is what Yassin Mobarak – founder of the private equity firm focused on startups in the tech sector Dizer Capital – believes. According to him, it is not in the agency’s best interest to have a trial where “their corruption can be exposed.” 

“They will now move to end this case as soon as possible so that they can appeal to the 2nd circuit and continue to sustain this cloud of uncertainty on the whole industry. Litigation, by itself, regardless of the outcome, is the weapon,” he said.