Global macro investor Lyn Alden hopes to see Bitcoin (BTC) reach $200,000 per coin in the next two years, believing $100,000 would be a “disappointing” outcome.
In a Monday episode of What Bitcoin Did, Alden assessed Bitcoin’s role within the current macroeconomic environment, and why its potential price destination may be hard to forecast between its adoption as a currency and surrounding central bank activity.
Bitcoin And Global Liquidity
According to Alden, Bitcoin is still largely correlated to liquidity, which she believes will trend upward between 2024 and 2025.
“There are some turbulence factors ahead in 2024 where I think they might not materialize, but there’s a decent chance that they will,” she clarified. “My conviction is more about the two year period than the one year period, if that makes sense.”
Bitcoin’s price has historically experienced major upswings every four years dating back to 2013, followed by steep corrections in the following year. Though theories vary about the source of the pattern, some believe its linked to macroeconomic tailwinds spurred by dovish central bank policy during each relevant period.
For example, Bitcoin soared from $3500 to $64,000 between March 2020 and April 2021 after the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%. By current market predictions, the Fed will likely begin lowering interest rates again in 2024, positioning 2025 for a bull market across all asset classes – especially crypto.
Bitcoin’s Price Potential
While noticing Bitcoin’s correlation to liquidity is simple, Alden said deriving a specific price prediction from it is far more difficult. Price predictions ranging between $150,000 and $500,000 are all “entirely reasonable.”
“The range for what it could be is based on so many things that are hard to judge,” she said, referring to ETF approvals odds, capital inflows, nation-state shocks, and a potential short-term negative liquidity period. “There’s a huge array of variables that I would be hesitant to try to guess.”
Bitcoin’s price fell from $45,000 to $40,800 on Wednesday following a Matrixport article that was doubtful of a Bitcoin ETF being approved next week. Its price has since returned to $43,000 after a Fox Business report that regulators are finalizing details on ETF applications with Nasdaq, CBOE, and NYSE.
Former NYSE President Tom Farley predicted in November that capital will “flood” into Bitcoin after ETFs are approved.
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