Shortest Bull Run in History or Big Bitcoin Rally? Analyst Debate BTC’s Current State

Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed below its bull market support band making it the fourth week in a row to do this.

The close of $58,748 has kept the asset below key moving averages, as depicted by analyst Benjamin Cowen in a post on X on Aug. 19.

Moreover, the last three weekly candles have been compressed, with two in a spinning top formation, which suggests a volatility explosion could be coming soon.

#BTC with another weekly close below its bull market support band pic.twitter.com/xKypm25zfP

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 19, 2024

What The Analysts Say

HODL15Capital reported that “Bitcoin shorts have become very aggressive across multiple exchanges” on Aug. 19, with 24-hour short volume surging 119%.

However, crypto liquidations appear to have returned to more stable levels, according to CoinGlass, which reports 7,852 traders liquidated and total liquidations of $76.34 million.

Meanwhile, Web3 researcher Stacy Muur observed social and search sentiment for Bitcoin, noting that we are now at levels last seen in November 2023.

If you believe we’re experiencing a bull market correction, check Google Trends.

We are now at the levels seen in November 2023.

Was spring 2024 the shortest bull run in history, or has there been no bull market at all? pic.twitter.com/ZUsz6dVAfy

— Stacy Muur (@stacy_muur) August 18, 2024

However, data from Glassnode suggests that long-term hodl sentiment is strengthening, with almost three-quarters of the BTC supply remaining dormant for the past six months, according to Hodl Wave charts.

Analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ looked at previous cycles, pointing out that Bitcoin is now about 125 days after the halving.

He added that Bitcoin tends to break out into the parabolic phase of the cycle around 160 days after the halving.

“If history repeats, Bitcoin could be just over a month away from breakout. That’s late September.”

Lulls in the year before a bull market peak are common and have happened in all previous cycles, so current market patterns are nothing new.

Where to Next For BTC?

The United States presidential election is bound to have an impact on markets, especially if Donald Trump wins, but that is not until November.

An interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is pretty much inevitable, and markets have already factored this in.

In a note last week, FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that a significant fundamental factor remains the BTC sales from U.S. government wallets.

“The psychological effect must be considered, causing buyers to wait for the end of the sell-off or speculate about the risks of regulatory tightening,” he added.

BTC was trading down 1.7% on the day at $58,454 at the time of writing after failing to break resistance at $60,100 on Sunday.