Ethereum is at its weakest level against Bitcoin since early 2021 as the ETH/BTC ratio continues to break down.
The ratio is a measure of the price of ETH in Bitcoin terms, not in US dollars. Despite falling 21% from its all-time high, Bitcoin has remained robust, whereas Ethereum remains down 53% from its peak in 2021.
In a post on X on Sept. 16, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowed predicted that the ETH/BTC ratio will “likely bottom between 0.03-0.04 and then trend up in 2025.”
It’s almost over.
I think #ETH / #BTC will likely bottom between 0.03-0.04 and then trend up in 2025.
It could bottom as early as this week or as late as December
Based on prior capitulations, I think it will happen sooner rather than later
Will make a video about it tomorrow https://t.co/rwqj5u4n8A pic.twitter.com/lc7iMruoqf
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 16, 2024
He added that it could bottom as early as this week or as late as December, but “based on prior capitulations, I think it will happen sooner rather than later.”
Whales Offloading ETH
Head of research at Galaxy, Alex Thorn, also observed the disintegration of Ethereum prices, reporting that ETH/BTC just traded on a 0.03 handle for the first time in three and a half years.
ETHBTC just traded on a 0.03 handle for the first time in 3.5 years (apr 2021)
-53% since the merge in sep 2022
what stops this train? pic.twitter.com/Olj6SGEiVe
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) September 15, 2024
Meanwhile, analyst ‘Master Kenobi’ said that these patterns were cyclical. The ETH/BTC pair historically declined after a Bitcoin halving, with trend reversals occurring 168-224 days following the event in previous cycles. He added that a reversal is expected soon as it is currently around 150 days after the halving.
“Fundamentally, nothing has changed for Ethereum in a negative way,” he said before adding:
“The current movement is artificially driven by a lot of FUD in the market, and the reality is that they want you to sell your ETH at a low price. The underlying strength of Ethereum remains intact, and this downward pressure appears to be a tactic to shake out weak hands.”
On Sept. 16, Galaxy Trading observed that markets are now seeing the lowest sentiment for Ethereum since 2017 before adding:
“In my opinion, people are in such disbelief that they forget how quickly ETH can surge once it starts moving.”
“Right now, ETH is approaching its biggest support line since its inception,” they said before adding, “This isn’t the time to be bearish.”
Half of my feed is ETH FUD at this point.
— antiprosynthesis.eth ⟠ (@antiprosynth) September 15, 2024
ETH Price Outlook
On Sept. 16, industry observer Colin Wu reported that an “ancient whale” who received 16,636 ETH from ShapeShift at $5.23 per coin in February 2016 has now started selling.
This has added to the negative sentiment sending ETH plunging 6% on the day, dumping the asset to an intraday low of $2,260 during Monday morning trading in Asia.
Ethereum has been trading at its lowest level since January, but there is solid support here, which may remain until the overall market sentiment improves.
Even renowned analysts were piling on the ETH FUD:
How it started How it’s going pic.twitter.com/PdLawNI2yT
— _Checkmate ⚡☢️️ (@_Checkmatey_) September 16, 2024
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