Will Today’s Bitcoin Options Expiry Send Markets Lower?

There are around 20,000 Bitcoin options expiring with a notional value of $1.35 billion. However, today’s expiry event is much smaller than in previous weeks, so market impact is likely to be minimal.

Nevertheless, a large Bitcoin options expiry event will occur on June 28, with $6.7 billion in notional value derivatives expiring.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Today’s BTC contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.49 which means twice as many long (call) contracts are expiring as shorts (puts).

The max pain point is $68,500, a little higher than current spot prices. This is the level at which most losses will be made.

The bulls are still dominating BTC derivatives with almost $1 billion in open interest at the $100,000 strike price, according to Deribit. $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices have also attracted a lot of OI with $723 million and $807 million respectively.

Crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live commented that despite the big macroeconomic data week in the United States, “the crypto market underperformed, the mainstream coins as a whole fell, and the altcoins are even more down.”

“There are fewer hot spots in the market recently, and the market is relatively quiet.”

It added that short-term implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has fallen below 50% and 60% respectively. However, Ethereum ETF news later this month could impact market sentiment and volatility.

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, 200,000 Ethereum options expired with a put/call of 0.36, a max pain point of $3,600, and a notional value of $710 million.

Crypto Market Outlook

There has been little change in total market capitalization over the past 24 hours with it remaining at $2.57 trillion.

However, markets have been in retreat with a 7.5% decline over the past ten days.

Bitcoin was hovering around $67,000 in early trading on Friday following a fall from around $69,500 earlier this week. Analysts pointed at Bitcoin miner profit taking contributing to the declines.

Chart guru Peter Brandt highlighted levels of support should markets fall further.

Ethereum has taken a bigger hit this week falling 7.7% to a four-week low of $3,434 on June 13 before recovering slightly to $3,515 at the time of writing.

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